🎰 High-Risk High-Reward
Lottery-ticket trade-ups: a small chance at a massive jackpot. Premium subscribers see these in 👑 high-risk-high-reward first; they appear here 3 hours later (same as our regular trade-ups feed).
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6781
Jackpot Price
$258.75
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.2x
Profit if Jackpot
$233.31
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Boreal Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.2840 (Weighted: 0.4575)
Input Cost
$25.44
Expected Value
$21.24
EV Ratio
83.5%
Input Items
2 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Well-Worn, $12.60, float=0.42]
8 x P90 Mustard Gas [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($258.75, 10.2x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($34.10, 1.3x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.18 ($21.21, 0.8x)
16.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Field-Tested float 0.34 ($1.06, 0.0x)
16.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.25 ($0.40, 0.0x)
16.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.27 ($0.14, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.14, 0.0x)
16.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.27 ($0.13, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-07-17
🎰 Jackpot
StatTrak™ P250 Splash Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6774
Jackpot Price
$71.26
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$60.74
Collections
The eSports 2013 Collection (x2)
The Kilowatt Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.5620 (Weighted: 0.8075)
Input Cost
$10.52
Expected Value
$11.01
EV Ratio
104.7%
Input Items
2 x StatTrak™ MAG-7 Memento [Minimal Wear, $4.86, float=0.13]
8 x StatTrak™ XM1014 Irezumi [Battle-Scarred, $0.10, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → StatTrak™ P250 Splash Field-Tested float 0.16 ($71.26, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → StatTrak™ Galil AR Orange DDPAT Battle-Scarred float 0.66 ($30.20, 2.9x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Glock-18 Block-18 Battle-Scarred float 0.54 ($1.44, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ M4A4 Etch Lord Battle-Scarred float 0.81 ($1.05, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Sawed-Off Analog Input Battle-Scarred float 0.50 ($1.01, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MP7 Just Smile Battle-Scarred float 0.81 ($0.99, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Five-SeveN Hybrid Battle-Scarred float 0.81 ($0.93, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-08-13
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6773
Jackpot Price
$298.67
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$254.57
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Overpass 2024 Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3690 (Weighted: 0.7130)
Input Cost
$44.10
Expected Value
$35.64
EV Ratio
80.8%
Input Items
3 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $14.63, float=0.25]
7 x P90 Wash me [Well-Worn, $0.03, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.06 ($298.67, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.06 ($33.00, 0.7x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.29 ($22.78, 0.5x)
17.5% → MAC-10 Pipsqueak Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → Galil AR Metallic Squeezer Well-Worn float 0.43 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → Nova Wurst Hölle Battle-Scarred float 0.71 ($0.27, 0.0x)
17.5% → Glock-18 Teal Graf Field-Tested float 0.36 ($0.26, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-07
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6773
Jackpot Price
$298.67
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$254.57
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Overpass 2024 Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3690 (Weighted: 0.7130)
Input Cost
$44.10
Expected Value
$35.64
EV Ratio
80.8%
Input Items
3 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $14.63, float=0.25]
7 x P90 Wash me [Well-Worn, $0.03, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.06 ($298.67, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.06 ($33.00, 0.7x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.29 ($22.78, 0.5x)
17.5% → MAC-10 Pipsqueak Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → Galil AR Metallic Squeezer Well-Worn float 0.43 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → Nova Wurst Hölle Battle-Scarred float 0.71 ($0.27, 0.0x)
17.5% → Glock-18 Teal Graf Field-Tested float 0.36 ($0.27, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-07
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Pandora's Box Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6767
Jackpot Price
$239.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$203.68
Collections
The Gods (x10)
Monsters Collection (x2)
The Ascent Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.5860 (Weighted: 0.8147)
Input Cost
$35.32
Expected Value
$37.30
EV Ratio
105.6%
Input Items
2 x M249 Shipping Forecast [Field-Tested, $17.50, float=0.25]
8 x Zeus x27 Electric Blue [Battle-Scarred, $0.04, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Pandora's Box Field-Tested float 0.24 ($239.00, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Minotaur's Labyrinth Field-Tested float 0.32 ($132.25, 3.7x)
16.0% → Desert Eagle Mint Fan Battle-Scarred float 0.49 ($0.26, 0.0x)
16.0% → P2000 Royal Baroque Battle-Scarred float 0.49 ($0.23, 0.0x)
16.0% → FAMAS Yeti Camo Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($0.21, 0.0x)
16.0% → P90 Reef Grief Battle-Scarred float 0.49 ($0.21, 0.0x)
16.0% → MP9 Cobalt Paisley Battle-Scarred float 0.53 ($0.21, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-07-20
🎰 Jackpot
AK-47 Jet Set Well-Worn
Lottery Score
0.6764
Jackpot Price
$616.90
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$525.70
Collections
The Baggage Collection (x1)
The Revolution Collection (x9)
Input Rarity
Restricted 🍇
Avg Input Float
<0.4450 (Weighted: 0.4450)
Input Cost
$91.20
Expected Value
$65.46
EV Ratio
71.8%
Input Items
Desert Eagle Pilot [Battle-Scarred, $86.88, float=0.67]
9 x R8 Revolver Banana Cannon [Well-Worn, $0.48, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → AK-47 Jet Set Well-Worn float 0.45 ($616.90, 6.8x) 🎯
30.0% → AWP Duality Field-Tested float 0.36 ($4.52, 0.0x)
30.0% → UMP-45 Wild Child Well-Worn float 0.45 ($4.04, 0.0x)
30.0% → P2000 Wicked Sick Well-Worn float 0.45 ($4.02, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-30
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6760
Jackpot Price
$308.86
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.1x
Profit if Jackpot
$278.40
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Boreal Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3340 (Weighted: 0.5097)
Input Cost
$30.46
Expected Value
$24.32
EV Ratio
79.9%
Input Items
2 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Battle-Scarred, $15.11, float=0.67]
8 x MAC-10 Acid Hex [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($308.86, 10.1x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($30.50, 1.0x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.20 ($21.18, 0.7x)
16.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Well-Worn float 0.38 ($1.03, 0.0x)
16.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.28 ($0.39, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.35 ($0.14, 0.0x)
16.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.12, 0.0x)
16.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.12, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-12
🎰 Jackpot
CZ75-Auto Chalice Minimal Wear
Lottery Score
0.6756
Jackpot Price
$913.34
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$778.16
Collections
The Cobblestone Collection (x2)
The Revolution Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.5620 (Weighted: 0.8054)
Input Cost
$135.18
Expected Value
$139.68
EV Ratio
103.3%
Input Items
2 x MP9 Dark Age [Minimal Wear, $67.27, float=0.13]
8 x SCAR-20 Fragments [Battle-Scarred, $0.08, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → CZ75-Auto Chalice Minimal Wear float 0.08 ($913.34, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → Desert Eagle Hand Cannon Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($478.87, 3.5x)
16.0% → M4A1-S Emphorosaur-S Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.64, 0.0x)
16.0% → Glock-18 Umbral Rabbit Battle-Scarred float 0.60 ($0.61, 0.0x)
16.0% → P90 Neoqueen Battle-Scarred float 0.48 ($0.57, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Sakkaku Battle-Scarred float 0.68 ($0.55, 0.0x)
16.0% → R8 Revolver Banana Cannon Battle-Scarred float 0.81 ($0.51, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-07-30
🎰 Jackpot
CZ75-Auto Chalice Minimal Wear
Lottery Score
0.6752
Jackpot Price
$913.34
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$778.08
Collections
The Cobblestone Collection (x2)
The Revolution Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.5620 (Weighted: 0.7137)
Input Cost
$135.26
Expected Value
$140.02
EV Ratio
103.5%
Input Items
2 x MP9 Dark Age [Minimal Wear, $67.31, float=0.13]
8 x P250 Re.built [Battle-Scarred, $0.08, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → CZ75-Auto Chalice Minimal Wear float 0.07 ($913.34, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → Desert Eagle Hand Cannon Battle-Scarred float 0.50 ($482.32, 3.6x)
16.0% → M4A1-S Emphorosaur-S Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($0.66, 0.0x)
16.0% → Glock-18 Umbral Rabbit Battle-Scarred float 0.54 ($0.58, 0.0x)
16.0% → P90 Neoqueen Well-Worn float 0.43 ($0.57, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Sakkaku Battle-Scarred float 0.62 ($0.53, 0.0x)
16.0% → R8 Revolver Banana Cannon Battle-Scarred float 0.71 ($0.49, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-07-28
🎰 Jackpot
AWP Silk Tiger Battle-Scarred
Lottery Score
0.6752
Jackpot Price
$1203.48
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$1025.24
Collections
The Havoc Collection (x2)
The Clutch Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Restricted 🍇
Avg Input Float
<0.5460 (Weighted: 0.7950)
Input Cost
$178.24
Expected Value
$149.62
EV Ratio
83.9%
Input Items
2 x SG 553 Hypnotic [Factory New, $87.00, float=0.05]
8 x Nova Wild Six [Battle-Scarred, $0.53, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → AWP Silk Tiger Battle-Scarred float 0.48 ($1203.48, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → MAC-10 Hot Snakes Battle-Scarred float 0.80 ($253.86, 1.4x)
26.7% → USP-S Cortex Battle-Scarred float 0.80 ($4.89, 0.0x)
26.7% → AUG Stymphalian Battle-Scarred float 0.50 ($4.87, 0.0x)
26.7% → AWP Mortis Battle-Scarred float 0.51 ($4.83, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-12
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6750
Jackpot Price
$298.67
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.1x
Profit if Jackpot
$269.17
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Boreal Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.2500 (Weighted: 0.4282)
Input Cost
$29.50
Expected Value
$23.89
EV Ratio
81.0%
Input Items
2 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $14.63, float=0.25]
8 x MAC-10 Acid Hex [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.03 ($298.67, 10.1x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.03 ($33.00, 1.1x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.17 ($22.78, 0.8x)
16.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Field-Tested float 0.32 ($0.85, 0.0x)
16.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.24 ($0.41, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.29 ($0.13, 0.0x)
16.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.26 ($0.12, 0.0x)
16.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.26 ($0.12, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-07
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6749
Jackpot Price
$269.10
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$229.23
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Overpass 2024 Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3010 (Weighted: 0.3209)
Input Cost
$39.87
Expected Value
$32.92
EV Ratio
82.6%
Input Items
3 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Well-Worn, $13.22, float=0.42]
7 x Negev Wall Bang [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.03 ($269.10, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.03 ($33.85, 0.8x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Minimal Wear float 0.13 ($23.95, 0.6x)
17.5% → MAC-10 Pipsqueak Field-Tested float 0.29 ($0.38, 0.0x)
17.5% → Nova Wurst Hölle Field-Tested float 0.32 ($0.35, 0.0x)
17.5% → Glock-18 Teal Graf Field-Tested float 0.16 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → Galil AR Metallic Squeezer Field-Tested float 0.19 ($0.28, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-01
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6748
Jackpot Price
$300.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$255.54
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Overpass 2024 Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3690 (Weighted: 0.7130)
Input Cost
$44.46
Expected Value
$35.75
EV Ratio
80.4%
Input Items
3 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $14.75, float=0.25]
7 x P90 Wash me [Well-Worn, $0.03, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.06 ($300.00, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.06 ($33.53, 0.8x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.29 ($22.05, 0.5x)
17.5% → Nova Wurst Hölle Battle-Scarred float 0.71 ($0.29, 0.0x)
17.5% → MAC-10 Pipsqueak Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.29, 0.0x)
17.5% → Galil AR Metallic Squeezer Well-Worn float 0.43 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → Glock-18 Teal Graf Field-Tested float 0.36 ($0.26, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-06
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6742
Jackpot Price
$317.75
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$270.62
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Radiant Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.2500 (Weighted: 0.3824)
Input Cost
$47.13
Expected Value
$37.28
EV Ratio
79.1%
Input Items
3 x Negev CaliCamo [Field-Tested, $15.64, float=0.25]
7 x P250 Sedimentary [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.03 ($317.75, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.03 ($30.72, 0.7x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.15 ($22.16, 0.5x)
11.7% → AWP Arsenic Spill Field-Tested float 0.19 ($0.53, 0.0x)
11.7% → Glock-18 Coral Bloom Field-Tested float 0.29 ($0.35, 0.0x)
11.7% → M4A1-S Rose Hex Field-Tested float 0.19 ($0.25, 0.0x)
11.7% → P250 Red Tide Field-Tested float 0.29 ($0.25, 0.0x)
11.7% → MP9 Shredded Field-Tested float 0.23 ($0.24, 0.0x)
11.7% → SSG 08 Blush Pour Field-Tested float 0.26 ($0.23, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-10
🎰 Jackpot
Dual Berettas Anodized Navy Minimal Wear
Lottery Score
0.6735
Jackpot Price
$33.00
Chance
5.0%
Multiplier
13.5x
Profit if Jackpot
$30.55
Collections
The Inferno Collection (x1)
The Boreal Collection (x9)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.6450 (Weighted: 0.9101)
Input Cost
$2.45
Expected Value
$2.10
EV Ratio
85.6%
Input Items
P250 Gunsmoke [Well-Worn, $2.18, float=0.42]
9 x Tec-9 Garter-9 [Battle-Scarred, $0.03, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
5.0% → Dual Berettas Anodized Navy Minimal Wear float 0.07 ($33.00, 13.5x) 🎯
5.0% → Tec-9 Brass Battle-Scarred float 0.91 ($4.06, 1.7x)
18.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Battle-Scarred float 0.68 ($0.72, 0.3x)
18.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Battle-Scarred float 0.50 ($0.32, 0.1x)
18.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Battle-Scarred float 0.55 ($0.11, 0.0x)
18.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Battle-Scarred float 0.62 ($0.11, 0.0x)
18.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Battle-Scarred float 0.55 ($0.10, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-25
🎰 Jackpot
P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6728
Jackpot Price
$149.50
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$127.28
Collections
The Cobblestone Collection (x2)
The Harlequin Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.6200 (Weighted: 0.8197)
Input Cost
$22.22
Expected Value
$27.89
EV Ratio
125.5%
Input Items
2 x Sawed-Off Rust Coat [Well-Worn, $10.95, float=0.42]
8 x MP5-SD Picnic [Battle-Scarred, $0.04, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested float 0.18 ($149.50, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → MP9 Dark Age Field-Tested float 0.18 ($127.00, 5.7x)
20.0% → Galil AR Sky Mandala Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($0.31, 0.0x)
20.0% → Five-SeveN Fraise Crane Battle-Scarred float 0.53 ($0.30, 0.0x)
20.0% → Zeus x27 Earth Mandala Battle-Scarred float 0.54 ($0.30, 0.0x)
20.0% → UMP-45 Warm Blooded Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($0.28, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-11
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Pandora's Box Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6725
Jackpot Price
$239.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$203.46
Collections
The Gods (x10)
Monsters Collection (x2)
The Overpass 2024 Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3860 (Weighted: 0.7720)
Input Cost
$35.54
Expected Value
$38.93
EV Ratio
109.5%
Input Items
2 x M249 Shipping Forecast [Field-Tested, $17.65, float=0.25]
8 x P90 Wash me [Well-Worn, $0.03, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Pandora's Box Field-Tested float 0.23 ($239.00, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Minotaur's Labyrinth Field-Tested float 0.30 ($148.06, 4.2x)
20.0% → Nova Wurst Hölle Battle-Scarred float 0.77 ($0.29, 0.0x)
20.0% → MAC-10 Pipsqueak Battle-Scarred float 0.69 ($0.28, 0.0x)
20.0% → Glock-18 Teal Graf Well-Worn float 0.39 ($0.28, 0.0x)
20.0% → Galil AR Metallic Squeezer Battle-Scarred float 0.46 ($0.26, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-10
🎰 Jackpot
Desert Eagle Fennec Fox Battle-Scarred
Lottery Score
0.6723
Jackpot Price
$324.45
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$276.19
Collections
The 2021 Mirage Collection (x2)
The Kilowatt Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Restricted 🍇
Avg Input Float
<0.5860 (Weighted: 0.6711)
Input Cost
$48.26
Expected Value
$53.82
EV Ratio
111.5%
Input Items
2 x XM1014 Elegant Vines [Field-Tested, $22.01, float=0.25]
8 x MP7 Just Smile [Battle-Scarred, $0.53, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → Desert Eagle Fennec Fox Battle-Scarred float 0.54 ($324.45, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → MP5-SD Oxide Oasis Field-Tested float 0.37 ($170.00, 3.5x)
26.7% → M4A1-S Black Lotus Battle-Scarred float 0.47 ($6.99, 0.1x)
26.7% → Zeus x27 Olympus Well-Worn float 0.45 ($4.85, 0.1x)
26.7% → USP-S Jawbreaker Battle-Scarred float 0.67 ($4.56, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-06-22
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6721
Jackpot Price
$317.75
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.1x
Profit if Jackpot
$286.23
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Boreal Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.2500 (Weighted: 0.4167)
Input Cost
$31.52
Expected Value
$24.98
EV Ratio
79.2%
Input Items
2 x Negev CaliCamo [Field-Tested, $15.64, float=0.25]
8 x Galil AR Acid Dart [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.03 ($317.75, 10.1x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.03 ($30.72, 1.0x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.17 ($22.16, 0.7x)
16.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.88, 0.0x)
16.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.23 ($0.40, 0.0x)
16.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.25 ($0.13, 0.0x)
16.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.25 ($0.13, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.28 ($0.13, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-10
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6720
Jackpot Price
$300.00
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.1x
Profit if Jackpot
$270.24
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Dust 2 Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3860 (Weighted: 0.4725)
Input Cost
$29.76
Expected Value
$23.81
EV Ratio
80.0%
Input Items
2 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $14.72, float=0.25]
8 x Sawed-Off Snake Camo [Well-Worn, $0.04, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($300.00, 10.1x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($31.81, 1.1x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.19 ($23.09, 0.8x)
26.7% → M4A1-S VariCamo Field-Tested float 0.28 ($0.30, 0.0x)
26.7% → SG 553 Damascus Steel Battle-Scarred float 0.47 ($0.14, 0.0x)
26.7% → PP-Bizon Brass Battle-Scarred float 0.47 ($0.14, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-05
