CS2 Restricted Trade-Ups: Best Contracts In and Out (August 2026)
Every profitable route into and out of purple skins
By chod on August 31, 2026
Restricted is the tier where CS2 trade-ups start paying properly. Mil-Spec inputs are cheap and plentiful, and Restricted outputs are the first rarity that reliably sells for real money. This page covers both directions: the best contracts that produce Restricted skins, and the best contracts that spend them.
Key takeaways
- 8 contracts made the cut for CS2 restricted trade ups, all priced from live market data.
- Best return on investment right now: 27% on the M4A4 Sheet Lightning contract.
- Cheapest entry: $6.75 for all 10 inputs.
- Highest odds to profit in this list: 100%.
| Rarity | Role in trade-ups |
|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | White. Never a trade-up output worth chasing. |
| Industrial Grade | Light blue. Cheap inputs for Mil-Spec contracts. |
| Mil-Spec | Blue. The most common input tier by far. |
| Restricted | Purple. The first tier where outputs are reliably worth real money. |
| Classified | Pink. Expensive inputs, high-value outputs. |
| Covert | Red. Five Coverts can be traded up for a knife or gloves. |
| # | Most likely output | Cost | Expected value | Profit | ROI | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New) | $7.25 | $9.17 | $1.92 | 27% | 75% |
| 2 | M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New) | $7.00 | $8.66 | $1.66 | 24% | 70% |
| 3 | M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New) | $6.75 | $8.19 | $1.44 | 21% | 65% |
| 4 | M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New) | $7.02 | $8.19 | $1.17 | 17% | 65% |
| 5 | AWP Green Energy (Minimal Wear) | $15.34 | $19.11 | $3.77 | 25% | 100% |
| 6 | AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn) | $7.74 | $9.41 | $1.67 | 22% | 90% |
| 7 | AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn) | $7.74 | $9.37 | $1.63 | 21% | 90% |
| 8 | AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn) | $8.04 | $9.60 | $1.56 | 19% | 90% |
Best trade-ups into Restricted
These contracts use Mil-Spec inputs and output a Restricted skin. This is the cheapest way to acquire Restricted skins, and usually the most profitable direction to trade in.
🥇 #1: M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New)
ROI: 27% · Net profit: $1.92 · Odds to profit: 75%
- Total input cost: $7.25
- Expected value: $9.17
- Average input float: 0.05
- Collection(s): The Radiant Collection (x5), The Boreal Collection (x5)
- Rarity: Mil-spec → Restricted
What you put in (10 skins)
5x M4A1-S Rose Hex (Factory New, $0.85 each, float 0.050) — buy
5x MP5-SD Gold Leaf (Factory New, $0.60 each, float 0.050) — buy
What you can get out
- ✅ 25.0% → M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New, float 0.070, $7.89)
- ❌ 25.0% → Glock-18 Glockingbird (Factory New, float 0.060, $5.55)
- ✅ 16.7% → M4A1-S Glitched Paint (Factory New, float 0.060, $7.88)
- ✅ 16.7% → Desert Eagle Mulberry (Factory New, float 0.070, $18.93)
- ✅ 16.7% → USP-S Bleeding Edge (Factory New, float 0.060, $8.00)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
🥈 #2: M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New)
ROI: 24% · Net profit: $1.66 · Odds to profit: 70%
- Total input cost: $7.00
- Expected value: $8.66
- Average input float: 0.05
- Collection(s): The Boreal Collection (x6), The Radiant Collection (x4)
- Rarity: Mil-spec → Restricted
What you put in (10 skins)
What you can get out
- ✅ 30.0% → M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New, float 0.070, $7.89)
- ❌ 30.0% → Glock-18 Glockingbird (Factory New, float 0.060, $5.55)
- ✅ 13.3% → M4A1-S Glitched Paint (Factory New, float 0.060, $7.88)
- ✅ 13.3% → Desert Eagle Mulberry (Factory New, float 0.070, $18.93)
- ✅ 13.3% → USP-S Bleeding Edge (Factory New, float 0.050, $8.00)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
🥉 #3: M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New)
ROI: 21% · Net profit: $1.44 · Odds to profit: 65%
- Total input cost: $6.75
- Expected value: $8.19
- Average input float: 0.05
- Collection(s): The Radiant Collection (x3), The Boreal Collection (x7)
- Rarity: Mil-spec → Restricted
What you put in (10 skins)
What you can get out
- ✅ 35.0% → M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New, float 0.070, $7.89)
- ❌ 35.0% → Glock-18 Glockingbird (Factory New, float 0.060, $5.55)
- ✅ 10.0% → M4A1-S Glitched Paint (Factory New, float 0.060, $7.88)
- ✅ 10.0% → Desert Eagle Mulberry (Factory New, float 0.070, $18.93)
- ✅ 10.0% → USP-S Bleeding Edge (Factory New, float 0.050, $8.00)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
#4: M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New)
ROI: 17% · Net profit: $1.17 · Odds to profit: 65%
- Total input cost: $7.02
- Expected value: $8.19
- Average input float: 0.05
- Collection(s): The Radiant Collection (x3), The Boreal Collection (x7)
- Rarity: Mil-spec → Restricted
What you put in (10 skins)
3x MP9 Shredded (Factory New, $0.94 each, float 0.050) — buy
What you can get out
- ✅ 35.0% → M4A4 Sheet Lightning (Factory New, float 0.060, $7.89)
- ❌ 35.0% → Glock-18 Glockingbird (Factory New, float 0.060, $5.55)
- ✅ 10.0% → M4A1-S Glitched Paint (Factory New, float 0.060, $7.88)
- ✅ 10.0% → Desert Eagle Mulberry (Factory New, float 0.060, $18.93)
- ✅ 10.0% → USP-S Bleeding Edge (Factory New, float 0.050, $8.00)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
Best trade-ups using Restricted inputs
Here you are spending Restricted skins to reach Classified. The inputs cost more, so the margins are tighter, but the outputs are worth substantially more per contract.
#5: AWP Green Energy (Minimal Wear)
ROI: 25% · Net profit: $3.77 · Odds to profit: 100%
- Total input cost: $15.34
- Expected value: $19.11
- Average input float: 0.26
- Collection(s): The Chroma 2 Collection (x6), The Boreal Collection (x4)
- Rarity: Restricted → Classified
What you put in (10 skins)
6x UMP-45 Grand Prix (Field-Tested, $1.85 each, float 0.260) — buy
What you can get out
- ✅ 40.0% → AWP Green Energy (Minimal Wear, float 0.150, $22.38)
- ✅ 20.0% → Five-SeveN Monkey Business (Field-Tested, float 0.260, $16.72)
- ✅ 20.0% → FAMAS Djinn (Field-Tested, float 0.200, $16.80)
- ✅ 20.0% → Galil AR Eco (Field-Tested, float 0.250, $17.25)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
#6: AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn)
ROI: 22% · Net profit: $1.67 · Odds to profit: 90%
- Total input cost: $7.74
- Expected value: $9.41
- Average input float: 0.406
- Collection(s): The Fracture Collection (x1), The Boreal Collection (x9)
- Rarity: Restricted → Classified
What you put in (10 skins)
1x MP5-SD Kitbash (Field-Tested, $0.54 each, float 0.280) — buy
9x Glock-18 Glockingbird (Well-Worn, $0.80 each, float 0.420) — buy
What you can get out
- ✅ 90.0% → AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn, float 0.450, $9.91)
- ❌ 3.3% → XM1014 Entombed (Field-Tested, float 0.300, $5.00)
- ❌ 3.3% → Glock-18 Vogue (Well-Worn, float 0.450, $4.86)
- ❌ 3.3% → M4A4 Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn, float 0.440, $4.87)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
#7: AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn)
ROI: 21% · Net profit: $1.63 · Odds to profit: 90%
- Total input cost: $7.74
- Expected value: $9.37
- Average input float: 0.406
- Collection(s): The Clutch Collection (x1), The Boreal Collection (x9)
- Rarity: Restricted → Classified
What you put in (10 skins)
1x Nova Wild Six (Field-Tested, $0.54 each, float 0.280) — buy
What you can get out
- ✅ 90.0% → AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn, float 0.450, $9.91)
- ❌ 3.3% → AWP Mortis (Well-Worn, float 0.380, $5.21)
- ❌ 3.3% → AUG Stymphalian (Well-Worn, float 0.380, $4.19)
- ❌ 3.3% → USP-S Cortex (Battle-Scarred, float 0.600, $4.28)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
#8: AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn)
ROI: 19% · Net profit: $1.56 · Odds to profit: 90%
- Total input cost: $8.04
- Expected value: $9.60
- Average input float: 0.413
- Collection(s): The Prisma 2 Collection (x1), The Boreal Collection (x9)
- Rarity: Restricted → Classified
What you put in (10 skins)
1x Sawed-Off Apocalypto (Field-Tested, $0.84 each, float 0.350) — buy
What you can get out
- ✅ 90.0% → AWP Green Energy (Well-Worn, float 0.450, $9.91)
- ❌ 3.3% → MAG-7 Justice (Battle-Scarred, float 0.600, $6.91)
- ❌ 3.3% → MAC-10 Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred, float 0.600, $6.92)
- ❌ 3.3% → AK-47 Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn, float 0.390, $6.93)
Open this contract in the CS2 trade-up calculator »
How Restricted trade-ups work
Ten Mil-Spec skins produce one Restricted skin. The possible outputs are the Restricted skins in whichever collections your inputs came from, and each collection's share of the odds is proportional to how many inputs you contributed from it. Use ten inputs from a single collection and every Restricted skin in that collection is equally likely.
Ten Restricted skins in turn produce one Classified skin, following exactly the same rules one tier up.
Picking the right collection
The best Restricted contracts share one trait: a small outcome pool where most of the outputs are worth more than the contract cost. A collection with two Restricted skins gives you a 50% shot at each; a collection with six spreads your odds thin. Check the outcome count before you commit, or let the calculator do it for you.
Where to buy the input skins
Input prices decide whether a contract is profitable, so it is worth checking two or three marketplaces before you buy. Tradeit.gg is the fastest for bulk buying cheap inputs, CSFloat is the best place to hunt a specific float, and Skinport usually wins on fees when you sell the output.
Frequently asked questions
How many skins do you need for a Restricted trade-up?
Ten. Ten Mil-Spec skins of the same StatTrak status produce one Restricted skin, and ten Restricted skins produce one Classified skin.
Are Restricted trade-ups profitable in CS2?
Frequently, yes. The best Restricted contract in this round-up is currently returning 27% in expected value with 100% odds to profit. Profitability depends entirely on the collection you pick and the float of your inputs.
Can you mix collections in a Restricted trade-up?
Yes, and it is a deliberate tactic. Adding inputs from a second collection adds that collection's outputs to your pool. Traders use cheap "filler" inputs from a collection with good outputs to shift the odds, but it also dilutes them, so the maths has to be checked each time.
What is the cheapest Restricted trade-up?
The cheapest contract on this page costs $6.75 for all inputs. Cheaper ones exist but tend to have negative expected value once you account for how little the outputs sell for.
Keep reading
- CS2 trade-up calculator
- CS2 trade-ups under $5
- Best CS2 trade-ups under $10
- 100% profit CS2 trade-ups
- CS2 trade-ups with 10% profit
- Best low float CS2 trade-ups
- CS2 trade-up calculator: float
- Live profitable trade-ups
- Open the calculator
Ready to find your next profitable trade-up?
Trade Up Lab tracks profitable CS2 trade-up contracts in real time, with live prices, float calculations and profit odds worked out for you.
Disclaimer: Trade-up contracts involve risk and prices move quickly. Figures in this article reflect market data at the time of writing and are not financial advice. Always double-check prices before committing skins. Some links are affiliate links that support Trade Up Lab at no extra cost to you.
