🎰 High-Risk High-Reward
Lottery-ticket trade-ups: a small chance at a massive jackpot. Premium subscribers see these in 👑 high-risk-high-reward first; they appear here 3 hours later (same as our regular trade-ups feed).
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6720
Jackpot Price
$300.00
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.1x
Profit if Jackpot
$270.24
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Dust 2 Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3860 (Weighted: 0.4725)
Input Cost
$29.76
Expected Value
$23.81
EV Ratio
80.0%
Input Items
2 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $14.72, float=0.25]
8 x Sawed-Off Snake Camo [Well-Worn, $0.04, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($300.00, 10.1x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($31.81, 1.1x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.19 ($23.09, 0.8x)
26.7% → M4A1-S VariCamo Field-Tested float 0.28 ($0.30, 0.0x)
26.7% → SG 553 Damascus Steel Battle-Scarred float 0.47 ($0.14, 0.0x)
26.7% → PP-Bizon Brass Battle-Scarred float 0.47 ($0.14, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-05
🎰 Jackpot
P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6710
Jackpot Price
$149.50
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$127.22
Collections
The Cobblestone Collection (x2)
The Dust 2 Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.6200 (Weighted: 0.7645)
Input Cost
$22.28
Expected Value
$27.84
EV Ratio
124.9%
Input Items
2 x Sawed-Off Rust Coat [Well-Worn, $10.98, float=0.42]
8 x MAC-10 Palm [Battle-Scarred, $0.04, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested float 0.17 ($149.50, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → MP9 Dark Age Field-Tested float 0.17 ($127.00, 5.7x)
26.7% → M4A1-S VariCamo Battle-Scarred float 0.46 ($0.36, 0.0x)
26.7% → PP-Bizon Brass Battle-Scarred float 0.76 ($0.18, 0.0x)
26.7% → SG 553 Damascus Steel Battle-Scarred float 0.76 ($0.16, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-10
🎰 Jackpot
StatTrak™ AK-47 Blue Laminate Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6708
Jackpot Price
$52.99
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$45.09
Collections
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection (x2)
The Revolution Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.3860 (Weighted: 0.4360)
Input Cost
$7.90
Expected Value
$7.75
EV Ratio
98.1%
Input Items
2 x StatTrak™ PP-Bizon Water Sigil [Field-Tested, $3.51, float=0.25]
8 x StatTrak™ MAG-7 Insomnia [Well-Worn, $0.11, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → StatTrak™ AK-47 Blue Laminate Field-Tested float 0.19 ($52.99, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → StatTrak™ P90 Blind Spot Field-Tested float 0.22 ($16.93, 2.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ M4A1-S Emphorosaur-S Field-Tested float 0.35 ($1.70, 0.2x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Glock-18 Umbral Rabbit Field-Tested float 0.33 ($0.99, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ P90 Neoqueen Field-Tested float 0.26 ($0.73, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MAC-10 Sakkaku Battle-Scarred float 0.46 ($0.70, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ R8 Revolver Banana Cannon Well-Worn float 0.44 ($0.60, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-05-22
🎰 Jackpot
M4A1-S Fade Minimal Wear
Lottery Score
0.6707
Jackpot Price
$524.29
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$446.12
Collections
The Sport & Field Collection (x1)
The Recoil Collection (x9)
Input Rarity
Classified 🌸
Avg Input Float
<0.6280 (Weighted: 0.8971)
Input Cost
$78.17
Expected Value
$92.76
EV Ratio
118.7%
Input Items
Glock-18 AXIA [Field-Tested, $42.98, float=0.25]
9 x P250 Visions [Battle-Scarred, $3.91, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → M4A1-S Fade Minimal Wear float 0.07 ($524.29, 6.7x) 🎯
45.0% → USP-S Printstream Battle-Scarred float 0.76 ($46.20, 0.6x)
45.0% → AWP Chromatic Aberration Battle-Scarred float 0.63 ($43.43, 0.6x)
Identified: 2026-05-24
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6707
Jackpot Price
$300.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$255.27
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Boreal Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3690 (Weighted: 0.5917)
Input Cost
$44.73
Expected Value
$35.79
EV Ratio
80.0%
Input Items
3 x Negev CaliCamo [Field-Tested, $14.84, float=0.25]
7 x P90 Mustard Gas [Well-Worn, $0.03, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.05 ($300.00, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.05 ($33.00, 0.7x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.24 ($22.33, 0.5x)
14.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Well-Worn float 0.44 ($1.01, 0.0x)
14.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.33 ($0.46, 0.0x)
14.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Well-Worn float 0.40 ($0.13, 0.0x)
14.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.35 ($0.12, 0.0x)
14.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.35 ($0.12, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-08-07