🎰 High-Risk High-Reward
Lottery-ticket trade-ups: a small chance at a massive jackpot. Premium subscribers see these in 👑 high-risk-high-reward first; they appear here 3 hours later (same as our regular trade-ups feed).
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6854
Jackpot Price
$324.07
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.9x
Profit if Jackpot
$276.79
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Achroma Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3760 (Weighted: 0.5390)
Input Cost
$47.28
Expected Value
$39.48
EV Ratio
83.5%
Input Items
3 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Battle-Scarred, $15.69, float=0.67]
7 x MP5-SD Snow Splash [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($324.07, 6.9x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($44.47, 0.9x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.22 ($24.27, 0.5x)
17.5% → Desert Eagle The Daily Deagle Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.30, 0.0x)
17.5% → AUG Creep Well-Worn float 0.43 ($0.30, 0.0x)
17.5% → P2000 Grip Tape Well-Worn float 0.40 ($0.29, 0.0x)
17.5% → P90 Aeolian Light Field-Tested float 0.35 ($0.27, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-16
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6844
Jackpot Price
$324.07
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$276.72
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Boreal Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3760 (Weighted: 0.5390)
Input Cost
$47.35
Expected Value
$39.56
EV Ratio
83.6%
Input Items
3 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Battle-Scarred, $15.69, float=0.67]
7 x P2000 Marsh [Field-Tested, $0.04, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($324.07, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($44.47, 0.9x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.22 ($24.27, 0.5x)
14.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Well-Worn float 0.40 ($1.09, 0.0x)
14.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.30 ($0.50, 0.0x)
14.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.37 ($0.16, 0.0x)
14.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.32 ($0.13, 0.0x)
14.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.32 ($0.13, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-15
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6844
Jackpot Price
$324.07
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$276.72
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Boreal Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3760 (Weighted: 0.5251)
Input Cost
$47.35
Expected Value
$39.57
EV Ratio
83.6%
Input Items
3 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Battle-Scarred, $15.69, float=0.67]
7 x P90 Mustard Gas [Field-Tested, $0.04, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($324.07, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($44.47, 0.9x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.21 ($24.27, 0.5x)
14.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Well-Worn float 0.39 ($1.09, 0.0x)
14.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.29 ($0.50, 0.0x)
14.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.36 ($0.16, 0.0x)
14.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.32 ($0.15, 0.0x)
14.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.32 ($0.13, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-16
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6815
Jackpot Price
$324.07
Chance
6.7%
Multiplier
10.2x
Profit if Jackpot
$292.37
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x2)
The Boreal Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3340 (Weighted: 0.4506)
Input Cost
$31.70
Expected Value
$26.50
EV Ratio
83.6%
Input Items
2 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Battle-Scarred, $15.69, float=0.67]
8 x Tec-9 Garter-9 [Field-Tested, $0.04, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
6.7% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($324.07, 10.2x) 🎯
6.7% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($44.47, 1.4x)
6.7% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.18 ($24.27, 0.8x)
16.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Field-Tested float 0.34 ($1.00, 0.0x)
16.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.25 ($0.51, 0.0x)
16.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.27 ($0.15, 0.0x)
16.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.14, 0.0x)
16.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.27 ($0.13, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-15
🎰 Jackpot
Desert Eagle Fennec Fox Battle-Scarred
Lottery Score
0.6814
Jackpot Price
$340.97
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$290.93
Collections
The 2021 Mirage Collection (x2)
The Kilowatt Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Restricted 🍇
Avg Input Float
<0.5860 (Weighted: 0.6360)
Input Cost
$50.04
Expected Value
$56.94
EV Ratio
113.8%
Input Items
2 x AUG Sand Storm [Field-Tested, $22.94, float=0.25]
8 x Five-SeveN Hybrid [Battle-Scarred, $0.52, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → Desert Eagle Fennec Fox Battle-Scarred float 0.51 ($340.97, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → MP5-SD Oxide Oasis Field-Tested float 0.35 ($183.22, 3.7x)
26.7% → M4A1-S Black Lotus Well-Worn float 0.45 ($7.10, 0.1x)
26.7% → Zeus x27 Olympus Well-Worn float 0.43 ($5.02, 0.1x)
26.7% → USP-S Jawbreaker Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($4.85, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-06-12
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6810
Jackpot Price
$322.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$274.72
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Achroma Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.3760 (Weighted: 0.5390)
Input Cost
$47.28
Expected Value
$38.97
EV Ratio
82.4%
Input Items
3 x SSG 08 Tropical Storm [Battle-Scarred, $15.69, float=0.67]
7 x MP5-SD Snow Splash [Field-Tested, $0.03, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.04 ($322.00, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.04 ($42.66, 0.9x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.22 ($23.06, 0.5x)
17.5% → Desert Eagle The Daily Deagle Field-Tested float 0.31 ($0.30, 0.0x)
17.5% → P90 Aeolian Light Field-Tested float 0.35 ($0.28, 0.0x)
17.5% → P2000 Grip Tape Well-Worn float 0.40 ($0.27, 0.0x)
17.5% → AUG Creep Well-Worn float 0.43 ($0.26, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-17
🎰 Jackpot
StatTrak™ P250 Splash Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6808
Jackpot Price
$69.03
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$58.89
Collections
The eSports 2013 Collection (x2)
The Revolution Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.5620 (Weighted: 0.8247)
Input Cost
$10.14
Expected Value
$12.15
EV Ratio
119.8%
Input Items
2 x StatTrak™ MAG-7 Memento [Minimal Wear, $4.67, float=0.13]
8 x StatTrak™ SCAR-20 Fragments [Battle-Scarred, $0.10, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → StatTrak™ P250 Splash Field-Tested float 0.16 ($69.03, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → StatTrak™ Galil AR Orange DDPAT Battle-Scarred float 0.67 ($44.94, 4.4x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ M4A1-S Emphorosaur-S Battle-Scarred float 0.66 ($1.62, 0.2x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Glock-18 Umbral Rabbit Battle-Scarred float 0.62 ($0.97, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ P90 Neoqueen Battle-Scarred float 0.49 ($0.82, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MAC-10 Sakkaku Battle-Scarred float 0.69 ($0.70, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ R8 Revolver Banana Cannon Battle-Scarred float 0.82 ($0.60, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-06-12
🎰 Jackpot
StatTrak™ AK-47 Blue Laminate Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6801
Jackpot Price
$54.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$46.06
Collections
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection (x2)
The Fracture Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.5860 (Weighted: 0.6360)
Input Cost
$7.94
Expected Value
$7.74
EV Ratio
97.5%
Input Items
2 x StatTrak™ PP-Bizon Water Sigil [Field-Tested, $3.49, float=0.25]
8 x StatTrak™ PP-Bizon Runic [Battle-Scarred, $0.12, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → StatTrak™ AK-47 Blue Laminate Field-Tested float 0.26 ($54.00, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → StatTrak™ P90 Blind Spot Field-Tested float 0.32 ($16.85, 2.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Galil AR Connexion Battle-Scarred float 0.51 ($0.86, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MP5-SD Kitbash Battle-Scarred float 0.51 ($0.84, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MAG-7 Monster Call Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.83, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Tec-9 Brother Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.80, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MAC-10 Allure Battle-Scarred float 0.64 ($0.77, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-05-21
🎰 Jackpot
MP9 Hot Rod Factory New
Lottery Score
0.6783
Jackpot Price
$345.00
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.8x
Profit if Jackpot
$294.14
Collections
The Mirage Collection (x3)
The Boreal Collection (x7)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.2500 (Weighted: 0.4167)
Input Cost
$50.86
Expected Value
$41.79
EV Ratio
82.2%
Input Items
3 x SG 553 Gator Mesh [Field-Tested, $16.86, float=0.25]
7 x Galil AR Acid Dart [Field-Tested, $0.04, float=0.25]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → MP9 Hot Rod Factory New float 0.03 ($345.00, 6.8x) 🎯
10.0% → UMP-45 Blaze Factory New float 0.03 ($44.97, 0.9x)
10.0% → MAC-10 Amber Fade Field-Tested float 0.17 ($24.91, 0.5x)
14.0% → AK-47 Wintergreen Field-Tested float 0.31 ($1.24, 0.0x)
14.0% → USP-S Tropical Breeze Field-Tested float 0.23 ($0.55, 0.0x)
14.0% → MAC-10 Poplar Thicket Field-Tested float 0.28 ($0.14, 0.0x)
14.0% → XM1014 Copperflage Field-Tested float 0.25 ($0.13, 0.0x)
14.0% → MP5-SD Gold Leaf Field-Tested float 0.25 ($0.13, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-07
🎰 Jackpot
P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6728
Jackpot Price
$149.50
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$127.28
Collections
The Cobblestone Collection (x2)
The Harlequin Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.6200 (Weighted: 0.8197)
Input Cost
$22.22
Expected Value
$27.89
EV Ratio
125.5%
Input Items
2 x Sawed-Off Rust Coat [Well-Worn, $10.95, float=0.42]
8 x MP5-SD Picnic [Battle-Scarred, $0.04, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested float 0.18 ($149.50, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → MP9 Dark Age Field-Tested float 0.18 ($127.00, 5.7x)
20.0% → Galil AR Sky Mandala Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($0.31, 0.0x)
20.0% → Five-SeveN Fraise Crane Battle-Scarred float 0.53 ($0.30, 0.0x)
20.0% → Zeus x27 Earth Mandala Battle-Scarred float 0.54 ($0.30, 0.0x)
20.0% → UMP-45 Warm Blooded Battle-Scarred float 0.57 ($0.28, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-11
🎰 Jackpot
Desert Eagle Fennec Fox Battle-Scarred
Lottery Score
0.6723
Jackpot Price
$324.45
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$276.19
Collections
The 2021 Mirage Collection (x2)
The Kilowatt Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Restricted 🍇
Avg Input Float
<0.5860 (Weighted: 0.6711)
Input Cost
$48.26
Expected Value
$53.82
EV Ratio
111.5%
Input Items
2 x XM1014 Elegant Vines [Field-Tested, $22.01, float=0.25]
8 x MP7 Just Smile [Battle-Scarred, $0.53, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → Desert Eagle Fennec Fox Battle-Scarred float 0.54 ($324.45, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → MP5-SD Oxide Oasis Field-Tested float 0.37 ($170.00, 3.5x)
26.7% → M4A1-S Black Lotus Battle-Scarred float 0.47 ($6.99, 0.1x)
26.7% → Zeus x27 Olympus Well-Worn float 0.45 ($4.85, 0.1x)
26.7% → USP-S Jawbreaker Battle-Scarred float 0.67 ($4.56, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-06-22
🎰 Jackpot
P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6710
Jackpot Price
$149.50
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$127.22
Collections
The Cobblestone Collection (x2)
The Dust 2 Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Industrial 💧
Avg Input Float
<0.6200 (Weighted: 0.7645)
Input Cost
$22.28
Expected Value
$27.84
EV Ratio
124.9%
Input Items
2 x Sawed-Off Rust Coat [Well-Worn, $10.98, float=0.42]
8 x MAC-10 Palm [Battle-Scarred, $0.04, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → P2000 Chainmail Field-Tested float 0.17 ($149.50, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → MP9 Dark Age Field-Tested float 0.17 ($127.00, 5.7x)
26.7% → M4A1-S VariCamo Battle-Scarred float 0.46 ($0.36, 0.0x)
26.7% → PP-Bizon Brass Battle-Scarred float 0.76 ($0.18, 0.0x)
26.7% → SG 553 Damascus Steel Battle-Scarred float 0.76 ($0.16, 0.0x)
Identified: 2026-06-10
🎰 Jackpot
StatTrak™ AK-47 Blue Laminate Field-Tested
Lottery Score
0.6708
Jackpot Price
$52.99
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$45.09
Collections
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection (x2)
The Revolution Collection (x8)
Input Rarity
Mil-Spec 🌀
Avg Input Float
<0.3860 (Weighted: 0.4360)
Input Cost
$7.90
Expected Value
$7.75
EV Ratio
98.1%
Input Items
2 x StatTrak™ PP-Bizon Water Sigil [Field-Tested, $3.51, float=0.25]
8 x StatTrak™ MAG-7 Insomnia [Well-Worn, $0.11, float=0.42]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → StatTrak™ AK-47 Blue Laminate Field-Tested float 0.19 ($52.99, 6.7x) 🎯
10.0% → StatTrak™ P90 Blind Spot Field-Tested float 0.22 ($16.93, 2.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ M4A1-S Emphorosaur-S Field-Tested float 0.35 ($1.70, 0.2x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ Glock-18 Umbral Rabbit Field-Tested float 0.33 ($0.99, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ P90 Neoqueen Field-Tested float 0.26 ($0.73, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ MAC-10 Sakkaku Battle-Scarred float 0.46 ($0.70, 0.1x)
16.0% → StatTrak™ R8 Revolver Banana Cannon Well-Worn float 0.44 ($0.60, 0.1x)
Identified: 2026-05-22
🎰 Jackpot
M4A1-S Fade Minimal Wear
Lottery Score
0.6707
Jackpot Price
$524.29
Chance
10.0%
Multiplier
6.7x
Profit if Jackpot
$446.12
Collections
The Sport & Field Collection (x1)
The Recoil Collection (x9)
Input Rarity
Classified 🌸
Avg Input Float
<0.6280 (Weighted: 0.8971)
Input Cost
$78.17
Expected Value
$92.76
EV Ratio
118.7%
Input Items
Glock-18 AXIA [Field-Tested, $42.98, float=0.25]
9 x P250 Visions [Battle-Scarred, $3.91, float=0.67]
Possible Outcomes
10.0% → M4A1-S Fade Minimal Wear float 0.07 ($524.29, 6.7x) 🎯
45.0% → USP-S Printstream Battle-Scarred float 0.76 ($46.20, 0.6x)
45.0% → AWP Chromatic Aberration Battle-Scarred float 0.63 ($43.43, 0.6x)
Identified: 2026-05-24